Gao Shanwen: The stock market has fully absorbed the impact of the trade war
Gao Shanwen: The stock market has fully absorbed the impact of the Sino-U.S. Trade war, and the decline in economic growth stems from the deceleration in consumption. Source: Brokers China May 16The impact of the US trade war, the degree of future fluctuations has little to do with the Sino-US trade war. Since April last year, the three stages of the Sino-U.S. Trade war have ended. There has been a clear discount at each stage of the China Stock Index and the Hong Kong Stock Index.Convergence, the estimated multiples of losses given by the stock market at the same time decreased, proving that the market has gradually absorbed the impact and is ready. The global economy has not yet absorbed the impact of the trade war, so it is worth considering whether the world will be dragged into a new round of economic recession.The current decline in economic growth is mainly due to a slowdown in consumption, but not from a slowdown in investment activities. The slowdown in consumption may be related to deleveraging. ”The Sino-US trade war has been absorbed and manifested in pricing.” Gao Shanwen believes that the stock market has largely absorbed the impact of the trade war, and the next market changes may mainly come from reasons other than the trade war. Looking back at April last year, the market believed that China and the United States would soon reach an agreement. After June, they showed some fierce confrontations. The capital market saw a major adjustment. The Sino-US trade war was gradual.The impact of capital markets has been minimal. How to assess the impact of the trade war on the market?Gao Shanwen selected two key market indexes to consider, including the China Stock Index and the Hong Kong Stock Index. Taking into account the main market performance of these two institutional investors, the decision seems to be more rational and compared with the fitted trend. The data shows that the true and fitted values of the China Stock Index are close to other indexes. After the outbreak of the trade war, that is, after April 15th, the Chinese stock index went slightly weaker. In June, China and the US added each other.After the tariff, China’s equity capital should fluctuate upwards and down and turn around, and the downward trend is very large. The index of Hong Kong stocks may not overlap with investors of Chinese stocks, but their performance is similar. There is also a big gap with the trend of fitting the index, and there is a large discount. At least it reflects that investors believe that the trade war will hit the profits of listed companies. The relative benchmark of Chinese stocks dropped by 32.The Hong Kong stock index fell by 6%.6%.In the extreme case, if a 25% tariff is levied on USD 50 billion, and an additional 10% levied on USD 200 billion is the loss of profits of listed companies at home and abroad, assuming that, the equity market will give an estimated loss of 58 times PE. Assuming the market believes that the tariffs on the trade war will be eliminated after one year, then the losses in the next year will be discounted to cash flows. Theoretically, the losses should be less than 1 time.If the market estimates that the trade war will last for ten years, the loss should exceed 10 times, but the estimated performance loss of the market is nearly 60 times, which proves that the market believes that the Sino-US trade war is a long-term impact and will continue to deteriorate. Before May 1 this year, the market generally believed that the long-term settlement agreement between the two parties was a high probability event, and the estimated levels of China’s stock index and H-shares began to be repaired.At this stage, the market gave an estimated 41 times PE to the trade war, and the China Stock Index dropped 21 more.9%, the Hong Kong stock index fell 8 more.3%. After the United States launched all the chips, the stock market’s estimate of the trade war at this stage was 12 times PE, and China’s stocks fell 26 more than the benchmark.4%, the Hong Kong stock index fell by 10 more.2%. However, in general, the market response estimates that the pricing has changed from nearly 60 times, 41 times to 12 times, proving that the market is gradually ready to take into account changes in other fundamentals. Gao Shanwen said that the Sino-US trade war is well known and fully absorbed in market pricing. It can be seen that the agreement reached between China and the United States is not everything and that the Sino-US trade war breakup is not the end of the world. Two major reasons for the global economic slowdown The global economy slowed significantly in the middle of last year. Gao Shanwen believes that the global economy has not absorbed the impact of the trade war. It will be worth considering whether it will be dragged into a new round of economic recession in the future. Global industrial growth began to recover in 2016, and began to slow down significantly in the middle of last year. Now it has fallen back to the level of early 2016. The situation in China is similar to the global situation.From the leading indicators, the global economy has not yet turned around. The characteristic of this round of deceleration is that the deceleration mainly occurs in the manufacturing and trade fields, and the service industry is still at a high level of prosperity.The service industry PMI performed much better than the manufacturing 武汉夜生活网 industry.Global export data also drop significantly each year. Gao Shanwen said that there are two main reasons for the global economic slowdown: First, the Sino-US trade war.China is the world’s largest manufacturing country. It is deeply involved in the global supply chain, and all countries around the world will bear the consequences.Although the impact of the trade war on the capital market has been fully demonstrated, the impact on the real economy has not yet been reflected. Second, China has experienced deleveraging.In the past six months, China ‘s trade surplus has expanded, and imports have fallen more than exports have restarted. China ‘s domestic demand has slowed down significantly, and it has a greater relationship with China in deleveraging. One of the phenomena is that China’s auto consumption has increased significantly, affecting German car orders.This round of China’s slowdown in demand is very special in history. Most of the time, the slowdown in internal demand mainly comes from the slowdown of investment activities. However, since last year, China’s investment activity has been relatively stable, and the slowdown mainly comes from decline in consumption.The data proves that compared with disposable income and retail sales of consumer goods, relative income has increased, and household consumption has been unusually weak.The market believes that Chinese consumption is downgraded, such as the rise of Pinduoduo. The reason for the slowdown in consumption is not why real estate consumption has slowed down?The most popular explanation is real estate. The idea is very simple, the house is so expensive, and the family only buys a house with 6 wallets, which leads to tight consumption and young families become invisible poor.There are well-dressed and decent young people in the city, but the cash flow is actually very tight. Gao Shanwen said that the problem with this explanation is that people who want to buy a house after the house has risen must cut back on food and clothing, and the assets and wealth of those who already own the house have increased. The proportion of this group of people is high, and it should reasonably stimulate consumption. From the perspective of social consumer goods retail sales and commercial housing sales, population inflows are uneven in different cities, and housing prices in cities with population inflows tend to increase.Therefore, the long-term variable is calculated instead, that is, the long-term changes in the cumulative retail sales of consumer goods and commercial housing in 2016 and 2017. The two-year change value can eliminate the difference in population migration, thereby overturning the cause of the slowdown in consumption. Gao Shanwen believes that the slowdown in household consumption is a financial policy adjustment, mainly a substitute for deleveraging, and buying a house is a relatively minor factor. First, for every 100 yuan of income, residents will leave 33 yuan unused, and then deposit 22 yuan into the bank.Observing the savings / disposable income in the physical transactions of the household sector, it can be seen that in 2016, 2017, and 2018, the scale of residents’ deposits in banks declined significantly to historical levels, and the savings were unusually small.For the first time (including internal financial management), the amount of money (loans) taken from a bank is smaller. There may be two situations: one is that the residents save the money when they buy the house, and the other is that the bank does not accept the money. Specifically, savings can be considered in the money supply, but changes in the money supply are declining.If money is used to buy a house, it should be that the demand for money is falling, and the interest rate level has risen significantly, leaving only the decline in the bank’s money supply, but the simultaneous monetary policy has not significantly tightened. The most important reason is the new asset managementThe deleveraging of regulations has resulted in bank debtors being forced to consolidate the supply of wealth management markets, which has led to an increase in interest rates. The unusual slowdown in consumption over the past two years has been a slowdown in economic activity, not due to structural aging and real estate, but rather a substitute for deleveraging financial policies.With the Sino-U.S. Trade war, it is more important and urgent to adjust the policy. It is hoped that the money supply will rise to a more appropriate and even slightly loose level.Along with the adjustment of economic policies is more relaxed and more stable, which will help stabilize global economic activities and help digest the impact of the Sino-US trade war. What’s the most noteworthy thing in the future?It is whether we can seize the opportunity of the Sino-US trade war, find the root of many problems, and solve the difficulties we face in the past and the present.
Gao Shanwen: The stock market has fully absorbed the impact of the trade war