Zhejiang Meida (002677): Adhere to the integrated stove vent to enjoy the rapid growth bonus of the industry
Key points of investment: The advantages of the integrated stove category are prominent, and the increase in penetration has promoted the rapid development of the industry.
The integrated stove products have excellent smoke absorbing ability, low noise, saving kitchen space and cost-effective advantages. After 2015, they passed the primary introduction stage and entered an explosive growth phase: According to Zhongyikang statistics, the sales of integrated stoves increased by 36% from 2015 to 2018.In 2018, the sales volume reached 1.75 million units, and the penetration rate relative to traditional range hoods increased from 3% all the way to nearly 10%; the retail sales reached 12.9 billion, becoming the first in the seven categories of kitchen appliances industryThree billion-dollar items.
We have selected the population of third and fourth tiers and rural areas and the number of hoods to measure the middle market size limit for supplementary demand for integrated stoves. Even if the relative hood penetration of integrated stoves 北京夜生活网 is only increased to 25% in the future, the potential market capacity will reach 15 million units.After the existing stock of 7.5 million units, the new demand is still more than four times the annual sales of integrated stoves, and there is no need to consider the medium-term growth.
Meida pioneered the first row of integrated stoves, with industry leaders firmly connected in series.
From 2015 to 2017, the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the compound growth rate reached 41% and 40%, respectively, and the integrated stove business revenue accounted for 90%.
As the inventor of the lower integrated stove, the company’s market share has basically stabilized at more than 25% since its listing in 2012, and it has been an absolute leader in the industry.
In 2017, the company completed the succession of the family business. The executive shareholding ratio was 17%. The employee shareholding covered the core of the middle-level core. The efficient performance of corporate governance was fully incentivized. The company currently has 1,300 dealers and nearly 3,000 stores in the industry.The launch of the distributor’s shareholding plan will help further strengthen channel leadership.
Multiple channels blossom, new products continue to be developed, and future kitchen appliance suppliers can be expected.
1) The company’s short-term core driving force is still rapid sales growth, and the price has remained basically stable. The continuous sales growth is mainly due to the acceleration of new stores and rapid growth of same-store growth. Under the background of sales of third- and fourth-tier real estate in the future, the growth momentum will shift to multiple channels.Blossom + new product expansion to increase customer unit price: the existing e-commerce channel revenue accounted for nearly 10%. After signing a professional e-commerce operation team, the growth rate has doubled continuously; offline channels continue to have shop space, and the first and second lines will enter the KA channel in the future.The density of online stores has increased, and engineering channels have been intensified, which is expected to continue to contribute new growth points.
2) Overweight production capacity and marketing can be expected from the kitchen appliance supplier.
The company plans to add 800,000 integrated stove projects and 300,000 electric steam ovens and electric oven supporting products. At the same time, advertising marketing costs have increased significantly. In the current integrated stove industry welcoming a new round of reshuffle, the company’s increased marketing costs will helpIn order to expand brand influence and coordinate new sales, new products such as cabinets, water purifiers, steam ovens, and dishwashers are expected to make breakthroughs based on existing channels, and future kitchen appliance suppliers can be expected.
Profit forecast and investment rating.
We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its parent to be 3 in 2018-2020.
7.8 billion, 4.
7.8 billion and 5.
$ 8.3 billion, with annual growth of 24%, 26%, and 22%, respectively, with corresponding gains of zero.
74 and 0.
90 yuan, dynamic price-earnings ratios of 23 times, 18 times and 15 times, respectively. The company’s industry is in a stage of rapid growth. As a leader in the industry, it is reasonable to have a certain premium. We believe that a reasonable estimate of 20-22 times in 2019, corresponding to the targetPrice 14.
3 yuan, for the first time, give “overweight” investment rating.
Risk reminder: Short-term downward pressure on real estate sales drags down the penetration rate of integrated stoves.